People are moving to warmer states and, according to many commentators, away from states with higher taxes. The national birth rate has grown lower, and immigration is a major factor in the ever-growing population of the United States.
Arizona continues to grow, as do Texas and Florida. In fact, Arizona has grown in the last half century or so from a state with only two representatives in the U.S. House to nine, and it is quite likely to have another one for the 2022 election. California, along with several states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, is likely to lose a seat, as the total always stays at 435 while the nation’s population grows, and growth in some states is relatively lower. California has many wealthy people and many immigrants, but it is losing its middle class, much of it to Arizona.
Arizona has its Independent Redistricting Commission, which has set congressional and legislative districts after the last two censuses. That attempts to take away some of the politics that is tied to legislative creation of districts, but it certainly still exists. A key focus will be the state’s 1st District, which includes much of Pinal County and was billed as the state’s first all-rural district when it was created nearly 20 years ago. After the 2010 census, it was made to lean more Democratic by taking Prescott out. Northern Pinal County is not in the 1st, although the district was the first in history to give Pinal so much influence.
A strong argument will be made to keep Pinal more intact and unified next time, and that really should happen. It would make election of a Pinal resident more likely and possibly ensure it.
The bigger winners are likely to be Florida and Texas, with two and three additional seats respectively. Of course, along with that change comes more electoral votes, making the “winner” states, including Arizona, more important in presidential politics.
For now, the major focus is on the 2020 election, but it also needs to be on getting a complete count in the census and then on to redistricting.