The 2020 election is certainly underway, and news shows and news networks have reported on many political polls, yet few of these reports provide a picture of the political situation in Arizona.
Recently, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), an Arizona company that conducts surveys and provides strategic planning for clientele, surveyed a sample of 600 Arizona citizens who are likely to vote in 2020. The results provide a snapshot of current political opinion as of now, although the election is more than 15 months away, and opinions can change.
Within the sample, 39% were Republicans, 34% were Democrats and 27% were Independents. The top issues for Democrats were education and health care, while Republicans were most concerned about immigration. Forty-eight percent of those polled approved of President Trump and 45% disapproved. In head-to-head competition, only Joe Biden had more votes than the president (49% to 44%). All the other Democratic candidates scored a lower proportion — Elizabeth Warren, 42-47; Kamala Harris, 39-48; Bernie Sanders, 37-46; and Pete Buttigieg, 37-46.
Polling on the U.S. Senate race varied by county. Democrat Mark Kelly won Maricopa county 46-41, while Republican Martha McSally narrowly won Pima 49-48 and won in all other counties 52-37. The poll clarified that the ultimate result in the senatorial vote will be dependent primarily on the votes in the cities of Gilbert, Chandler, north Phoenix and Glendale. In terms of favorability, Sinema was found favorable by 54%, McSally by 51% and Kelly by 45%.
In general, respondents believed that Biden as the candidate would be great for the Democrats and all other Democratic candidates would benefit the president. This is an instance where it being early in the campaign, some may see other Democratic presidential candidates in a more favorable light as voters learn more about these politicians.
According to OHPI, the sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a margin of error of ± 4%. Within the sample, 37% were conservative, 41% claimed to be moderate, 21% were liberal and 2% either did not know their political ideology or refused to answer. Forty-nine percent of the sample were men and 51% were women. The age distribution was: 12% 18 to 34, 16% 35 to 44, 15% 45 to 54, 21% 55 to 64 and 37% older than 64 (the sum is greater than 100% due to rounding).
It will be interesting to see how opinions are modified as the campaigns continue.
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